Is the glass half full or half empty for US Markets?
Have you ever been through a period of recovery in your life? Perhaps you received an injury of some sort and needed time to heal. While recovering, we don’t usually function at our peak level do we? We might experience a measure of discomfort or decreased mobility for a time. We may have good days and bad days. This aptly illustrates what our economy is going through.
From late 2007 to mid 2009, we sustained a serious injury. Since that time official data shows that we are recovering, but it doesn’t always feel like we are. Disruptions from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami have had a direct impact on manufacturing and the auto industry in particular. The spike in oil and gasoline prices has affected consumer and business spending. More recently, European sovereign debt woes and a batch of soft economic reports have created tension for stock markets. What does this all mean? It means we are not functioning at our peak level because we’re going through a period of healing. Until we are fully recovered, we are going to experience ups and downs.
We’ve come very far, very fast – especially in the stock market. With the Dow up some 22% in the last 12 months , we must reasonably acknowledge that such rapid growth is not sustainable. We may have to go lower before we go higher. Since the markets began to rise in March 2009, we have seen a number of 5-7 % pullbacks and we may see more of them in the future.
To use another analogy, if you’re on a bumpy plane ride, you don’t strap on a parachute and jump out the door at the first sign of turbulence; you simply buckle your seatbelt and try to relax. That is precisely what we are encouraging you to do. Now is not the time to give up on our expectations for a full recovery.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: US Holiday – Memorial Day
Tuesday: Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Wednesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, ADP Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Thursday: Monster Employment Index, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, Factory Orders
Friday: Employment Situation, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
HEADLINES:
Gas prices have come down in May after reaching nearly $4 last month, giving a lift to how people feel about the economy and raising hopes that they might be willing to spend more. Benchmark oil for July delivery was down 70 cents to $99.89 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
The European Union is working on a second bailout package for Greece in a race to release vital loans next month and avert the risk of the euro zone country defaulting, EU officials said on Monday.
China will raise retail electricity prices starting next month, the first increase in more than a year, to curb demand and boost power generation as the nation battles with a supply shortfall that may be the worst in history.
A woman's attempt to sell a purported $1.7 million moon rock was thwarted last week when the buyer she met with turned out to be an undercover agent working for NASA. The sting, which according to the Riverside County (Calif.) Sheriff's Dept. came after several months of investigation, took place at a Denny's restaurant in Lake Elsinore, Calif., about 70 miles southeast of Los Angeles. The woman, who authorities did not identify, was detained but not arrested pending the "moon rock" being verified as
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How will European Debt crisis impact our US Markets?
The sovereign debt situation in Europe and particularly in the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) has been a feature in the news since early last year. In recent days though, additional attention has been drawn to this issue as international ratings agency, Fitch, lowered Greece’s credit rating further into junk status Friday. They also warned that any attempt to extend the maturities of Greek sovereign debt would be treated as a default.
Likewise illuminating the significance of this problem, eighty-five percent of international investors surveyed by Bloomberg last week said Greece will probably default on its debt, with majorities predicting the same fate for Ireland and Portugal. The European Commission said on May 13 that Greece’s debt will reach 166 percent of gross domestic product next year, the highest for any country in the euro’s history.
Perhaps you are wondering why debt problems on the other side of the world matter here in the U.S. Admittedly, Greece’s annual output is only about one-half of one percent of the world’s output and less than three percent of Europe’s GDP . But if the problems extend into other Eurozone countries, triggering additional defaults, a slowdown in European growth could occur, creating further drag on the world economy.
To bring matters closer to home, with U.S. debt projected to grow more than 275 percent by 2035 , the U.S. has financial problems too. American political leaders disagree on how to solve these problems just as Greece’s leaders do. This is another reason why many people are watching Europe so closely – they recognize that important lessons can be learned by evaluating how debt problems abroad are resolved.
No one can say with certainty how the sovereign debt crisis will be resolved.
Regardless of what happens though, rest assured that we will continue to monitor the situation both domestically and abroad, and will keep you informed about anything with the potential to affect your finances.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Tuesday: New Home Sales
Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales Index
HEADLINES:
The average U.S. price of a gallon of gasoline has dropped about 9 cents over the past two weeks bringing the national average for a gallon of mid-grade to $4.05. For premium it's $4.16 a gallon.
With the effects of the earthquake in Japan rippling through the auto industry and causing shortages, prices are rising for both new and used cars. It is also anticipated that fewer models and options will be available come summer, especially for the hybrids and fuel-efficient vehicles that Japan produces.
Oil slid to its lowest price in almost three months last week as
a stronger dollar, increasing crude-oil stockpiles, and decreasing demand all took a toll on prices. Crude oil for June delivery dropped 46 cents to $96.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Feb. 22.
The number of American households behind on mortgage payments hovered at its lowest level in nearly two years during the first quarter, but the number of borrowers in foreclosure stayed near record high levels, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.
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What is the ‘true’ financial health of Medicare and Social Security???
Each year the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds report on the current and projected financial status of the two programs. This year’s report was released on Friday, and we thought you might like to know about the key findings.
According to government predictions, Medicare’s largest trust fund will run out of money in 2024, five years earlier than projected last year. The program’s faulty finances are, in part, a symptom of the sluggish economy. Higher projected health-care costs and lower payroll taxes are being blamed for the shortfall. Pressure will doubtless intensify in Washington as a bipartisan effort is made to shore up the 46-year-old healthcare plan that covers more than 47 million elderly and disabled Americans.
Regarding Social Security, the report showed that expenditures exceeded the program’s non-interest income in 2010 for the first time since 1983, and that the program faces a $46 billion deficit for 2011. The projected point at which the combined Trust Funds will be exhausted comes in 2036 – one year sooner than projected last year. At that time, there will be sufficient income to pay only 77% of scheduled benefits.
The report concluded by saying that, “projected long-run program costs for both Medicare and Social Security are not sustainable under currently scheduled financing, and will require legislative corrections if disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers are to be avoided. The financial challenges facing Social Security and Medicare should be addressed soon. If action is taken sooner rather than later, more options and more time will be available to phase in changes so that those affected can adequately prepare.”
While it is impossible for us to address all the nuances of Medicare and Social Security in this brief communication, let alone all the proposed solutions, we wish to draw your attention to the two italicized words at the end of the previous paragraph: adequately prepare. Of all the information we found in the eye-crossing 244 page report (you can read it here: http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2011/tr2011.pdf), these two words strike us as most significant.
No one can predict with certainty what the future of Medicare and Social Security will be. Most people agree that reforms are needed and that changes will be made, but what those changes will be and how they will affect beneficiaries, remains to be seen. What we do know, is that we must adequately prepare in every way possible.
Adequate preparation requires a number of things. It involves taking your life expectancy into consideration when deciding what withdrawal rates are sustainable in your portfolio. It includes choosing an asset allocation that is likely to keep pace with inflating healthcare costs. It means considering whether long-term-care or other insurance coverage is right for you. It dictates determining the best time to start collecting benefits. Many important decisions must be made when preparing for the future and it is unwise to rely too heavily on government programs for support. Although making the right decisions can be challenging, we are here to guide you through the process.
If you have questions about how anything in this report could affect you or your loved ones, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us. We are here to serve you.
HEADLINES:
The average 401(k) balance rose to $744,900 at the end of March, Fidelity said, the highest since the firm began tracking the data in 1998 and a 12% jump from a year ago. Nearly 10% of participants raised their contribution rate during the first quarter, also a record.
Consumers continued to feel the pinch at grocery stores and gasoline stations in April as higher prices pushed up a widely used index of inflation to the fastest 12-month pace since the later part of 2008, according to government figures released Friday. The Labor Department said the consumer price index, the most widely used measure of inflation, was up 0.4 percent in April from March, and up 3.2 % from a year earlier.
US oil drilling activity slipped this week, down by 6 rotary rigs compared with a year ago, Baker Hughes Inc., an oilfield services company, reported. Land operations had the biggest loss, down 7 units, and inland waters activity decreased by 2 rigs. In what has become an unusual situation, offshore drilling registered the only increases, up by 3 rigs to a total of 33 rigs drilling in US waters.
The euro fell against all but two of its 16 most-traded counterparts, reaching a six-week low against the dollar, on concern Greece may have to restructure its debt and the nation’s problems may spread in the region.
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The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
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When will lower oil prices translate to lower gas prices at the pump?
More jobs and more oil – two things we have to be thankful for. When Americans are gainfully employed, they spend more and the economy grows. When there’s extra oil supply, its value drops and gas prices usually follow.
The employment picture has been improving since the beginning of the year, with a total of 768,000 jobs added since January. This momentum was carried through the month of April with the economy adding 244,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday. April was the strongest month for business hiring since February 2006, and the job gains were distributed across multiple business sectors. In fact, 73% of the nation’s industries have added jobs in the last six months alone. That's the most broad-based job gain on record since 1998.
Last week finally gave us a break from the recent run-up in oil prices as crude tumbled 15% to its biggest weekly decline in more than two years. In just one week, light, sweet crude fell from a close of $113.93 to a close of $97.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. After nearing $114 a barrel as fears about supplies took hold following escalating violence in Libya, a close below $100 is more than welcome.
The 15% drop in oil prices revives hope that lower gas prices will follow. And while oil usually needs to hover in this price range for a couple weeks before gas prices will fall, some analysts are predicting that prices will drop to an average of $3.75 per gallon by Memorial Day, and $3.50 by mid-summer. Some areas of the country have already seen a decrease in prices. Nigel Gault, chief economist for IHS Global Insight was quoted by USA Today as saying that "If this sticks, it's worth about 20 cents off the price at the pump."
These are two areas of the economy that we have been watching closely, and it is nice to see these positive trends. If things continue moving in this direction, it will probably have a positive impact on the American financial system.
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HEADLINES:
News of Bin Laden’s death led U.S. stocks to trade higher on Monday morning, but the so-called “Bin Laden Rally” quickly fizzled after investors concluded his death does little to ease global economic and political risks.
G.M. Reported that their earnings tripled in the first quarter, as revenue jumped 15%. The company’s profit was more than triple what it achieved in the same period a year ago, and its fifth consecutive profitable quarter.
U.S. born radical Anwar al-Awlaki is expected to become Al Qaeda leader Bin Laden's successor. It's understood that he survived a U.S. drone attack on a car in Yemen on Thursday. U.S. born radical al-Awlaki is widely believed to be the mastermind behind a number of terror atrocities and the leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $6.5 billion for the first quarter as a weakening housing market dashed hopes that the company had stabilized. Fannie said Friday it would ask the government for a fresh taxpayer infusion of $6.2 billion after paying dividends to the Treasury. The loss follows net income of $73 million during the previous quarter.
Eurozone members are debating milder recovery terms for debt-hit Greece as it struggles to stick to a harsh austerity plan, Greek media said Saturday after emergency talks in Luxembourg. The reports said Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou had flown to a "secret" meeting among G20 eurozone states that debated giving Athens more time to repay a 110-billion-euro ($157 billion) EU-IMF loan and easier deficit reduction targets.
Crosscurrents of the economy and markets at a 3 year high.
Stocks finished sharply higher last week, leading major indexes to their best month so far this year. A strong earnings season coupled with increases in personal spending, personal income, and gradual improvement in the nation’s job picture helped the Dow finish 4.3% higher for the month.
Also last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held his first-ever press conference to answer reporters’ questions in a televised setting. A clear effort was made to reassure a skeptical public that the central bank is doing everything it can to control inflation and expand the recovery. "It is very hard to blame the American public for being impatient," the Fed Chairman told about 60 reporters at Wednesday's news conference. Citing high unemployment and rising gas prices, Bernanke acknowledged that, "Conditions are far from where we would like them to be.”
Commenting on the Fed’s commitment to help curb excessive inflation, the Fed Chairman added, “If inflation persists or inflation expectations begin to move, then there is no substitution for action. We would have to respond... I think every central banker understands that keeping inflation low and stable is absolutely essential to a successful economy. And we will do what is necessary to ensure that that happens.” At a time when food and gas prices are on the rise, these words were comforting for many Americans to hear. And while stating that the recovery has been merely “moderate”, Bernanke also stressed the Fed’s belief that it is “sustainable”.
In spite of Mr. Bernanke’s constructive tone, we must reasonably acknowledge that the economic picture is not entirely rosy. Government data released Thursday showed that U.S. GDP slowed in the first quarter to 1.8% from 3.1% in the previous quarter, reflecting a spike in gasoline, higher overall inflation, and continued weakness in the housing market.
Much like a ship captain monitors his navigational instruments, we will continue to monitor both the policy makers and the economic indicators that help us navigate the vast sea of investment options. Commentaries like this are our way keeping you informed of the course we are charting.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Tuesday – Redbook, New Home Sales
Wednesday – Durable Goods Orders
Thursday – GDP, Jobless Claims , Corporate Profits
Friday – Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
HEADLINES:
The death toll from this week's storms rose to 343 Saturday, according to an NBC News count, making the tornado outbreak the second deadliest in U.S. history. Catastrophe risk modeling company EQECAT said that with initial reports of nearly 10,000 destroyed buildings, property insurance losses were expected to range from $2 to $5 Billion.
President Barack Obama used his weekly address to the nation to reiterate his call on Congress to stop granting tax subsidies to oil and gas companies. Despite recent signs of economic recovery, families across the country are experiencing “real pain” from soaring gas prices, Obama said.
Prince William and Kate Middleton have been pronounced husband and wife at Westminster Abbey in London. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, as they will now be known, made their vows in front of 1,900 guests and the eyes of the world.
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is preparing an investigation of Google Inc.’s dominance of the Internet search industry by alerting high-tech companies to gather information for the probe, three people familiar with the matter said. The probe is examining whether Google discriminated against other services in search results and stopped websites from accepting rival ads.
Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, a mastermind of the largest terrorist attack in American history, was killed Sunday in Pakistan in a military operation after the U.S. learned of his location.
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market