How will ‘Black Friday’ results impact the economy?
Equities ended the abbreviated week on a bullish note – with the S&P 500 having its second best week of the year – boosted by positive retail sales estimates and upbeat economic reports out of Europe. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.62%, the Dow gained 3.73%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.99%, erasing some of the losses we saw in previous weeks.
Although the holiday shopping season is just beginning, early information suggests retailers can expect a good showing this year. A recent consumer survey by Deloitte suggested that shoppers would spend an average of $286 over the holiday weekend, which is a 28% increase over a similar survey last year. Additionally, the National Retail Federation forecasts holiday sales to grow 4.1% over last year. This is good news for retailers, who expect to make between 40-50% of their profits during the holiday shopping season.
Hoping to goose the start of the shopping season, some retailers began offering Black Friday deals on Thanksgiving Day. Interestingly, the promotional push may have stolen sales from Black Friday itself. However, if Thursday’s numbers are added to Black Friday, stores still saw a total increase in sales of almost 1% over 2011, and store visits increased 3.5%, indicating that consumers are feeling confident and want to spend money.
The fiscal cliff is still very much on everyone’s minds, and despite reassuring jawboning by lawmakers, we don’t know how likely it is that we will see a resolution by Christmas. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fanned the flames during a speech last week by commenting that if a resolution is not reached, the U.S. economy will slide into recession. If that were allowed to happen, he does not believe that the Fed has the tools needed to help and that the economy would be on its own. While this isn’t a happy thought, it’s clear that Bernanke is using his bully pulpit to push lawmakers into action. His message is clear: “Make it happen, or you’re on your own.”
Monday of this week is widely known as “Cyber Monday,” the largest online shopping day of the year. As workers return to their desks after the long holiday weekend, many are still in shopping mode, and retailers offer online specials to lure them away from brick and mortar stores. It will be interesting to see if Cyber Monday numbers are as encouraging as Black Friday’s. Also this week, analysts will be turning their attention to the state of economic reports being released, including GDP, employment data, and consumer confidence.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Ben Bernanke Speaks at 8:30 AM ET, S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: New Home Sales, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Beige Book
Thursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales Index
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
HEADLINES:
iPad and iPhone dominate Black Friday online shopping. IBM found that 24% of online shoppers used mobile devices, compared to 14.3% in 2011. The iPad was used by 88.3% of tablet shoppers.
Greece closer to aid deal. After several days of bargaining and politicking, Europe’s leaders are moving closer to a new bailout deal for Greece. The IMF has agreed to relax its debt-cutting targets for Greece, meaning the country may not be forced to adopt additional austerity measures.
Chinese manufacturing numbers are up. After seven consecutive months of slowing, an important manufacturing index is up as factory orders pick up. Since manufacturing forms a large part of the Chinese economy, this could indicate that the world’s second-largest economy might be recovering from its slump.
Oil prices surge on Israel tensions. Oil prices rose above $88 a barrel, on increased tensions in the Middle East. A brewing fight between Israeli forces and Gaza separatists is causing supply worries, pushing up the price.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“ Abundance is about looking at life and knowing that you have everything you need for complete happiness, and then being able to celebrate each and every moment on Earth." – Dr. Wayne Dyer
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
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Investor’s can be thankful
Click on the link below to view Ken’s comments on the Fiscal Cliff, which appeared in the national newspaper, Investors Business Daily
http://news.investors.com/investing-etfs/111612-633764-fiscal-cliff-too-late-to-sell-stocks.htm
As you gather with your family and friends this week, we urge you not to let anxiety over the fiscal cliff or sovereign debt problems in Europe distract you from what matters most. Turn off CNBC and close the Wall Street Journal for a few days. Use the opportunity to recharge your batteries. There’ll be plenty of time to watch the news later. To help you with this, we thought it would be nice to share a few positive things worth being thankful for.
Progress towards a fiscal compromise: The latest word is that the White House and Congress have committed to short negotiations, with the goal of achieving a fiscal cliff resolution before the New Year. This is welcome news and we hope we’ll begin to see business leaders opening their wallets and making big investments in hiring and growth soon. Markets slid during the early part of last week, but rallied Friday on this news.
Resilient markets: Despite what we’ve been through in the past few years, U.S. markets are still performing well – the Dow is still up 3% for the year and 3.5% since last year, when economists worried that we might be facing a double-dip recession. With consumer sentiment running high and investors feeling renewed confidence in Congress, we may still see additional upside this year.
A recovering economy: Our economy has suffered some serious pain in the last few years, but is still chugging along. Currently, we have a housing market that is bouncing back vigorously, a decreasing unemployment rate, and recovering industrial output. Our economy still has a long way to go before it can be considered fully recovered, but trends are pointing to continued improvement next year if we can get past the fiscal cliff.
Looking ahead, despite the holiday-shortened trading week, markets could still see some action. Housing data will be released Monday, and Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak Tuesday (analysts expect his remarks to address the economic recovery and tight consumer credit markets). The day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday will mark the start of the holiday shopping season and traders may have time to react to any early revenue announcements. European analysts expect the next round of Eurozone aid to Greece to be announced this week, so we may see some movement in currency and European markets too.
HEADLINES:
Superstorm Sandy depresses industrial output. U.S. industrial manufacturing output fell in October as Sandy disrupted production and transportation across the Northeast. The storm is estimated to have reduced output by 1%; however, the underlying tone of production remains consistent with estimates.
Next round of Greek aid expected this week. According to remarks by Italian officials, Eurozone leaders will reach a compromise with Greece within days. Greece has already been granted an additional two years to reach austerity goals and European leaders will meet to discuss funding requirements for the next tranche of aid money.
Business inventories rise in September due to high stocks of automobiles. Excluding the automobile stocks, inventories were flat for a second month, meaning that economists may have to lower third-quarter GDP estimates. Business inventories form a key part of GDP estimates.
China’s biggest future threat is inflation. According to a Chinese central bank governor, the biggest risk to China’s transition from a planned economy to a market-based one is inflation. Without careful management by central bankers and deep financial reforms, overspending by local and regional governments could overheat the economy.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them”
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!
If you would like to opt-out of future emails, please reply to this email with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.
Will the markets go over a ‘Fiscal Cliff’?
The big question last week was: What next? Markets slid as investors reacted to fears about post-election economic policy and renewed turbulence in Europe. Stocks logged their worst week since June, with the S&P losing 2.64%, the Dow sliding 2.12% and the Nasdaq falling 3.16%.
The world tuned in on Tuesday to watch the end of a hotly contested U.S. national election. For those who missed it, President Obama won a second term in office. In Congress, Democrats won a majority in the Senate while Republicans maintained control of the House. Markets started the selloff first-thing on Wednesday as traders responded to concerns about the global economy, driving the S&P 500 down by 2.4%. Bonds experienced a dramatic swing as well, as worried investors were driven towards the perceived safety of government securities.
Now that the election is over, analysts and media pundits are turning their attention to the issue that’s been hanging over us for months: the fiscal cliff. The fiscal cliff will likely dominate headlines until an agreement is reached, meaning that we can expect markets to remain volatile. A split Congress will make it difficult for Democrats and Republicans to reach a compromise. Deep divisions between the parties remain, and the debate may continue through the New Year; though we really hope it doesn’t.
President Obama jumped right into the debate last Friday and staked out the Democratic negotiating position by announcing that any agreement must include tax increases on the wealthy. Since this is a major sticking point for Republicans, it is unlikely that a compromise will be reached soon. If Republicans do not give ground on the issue, Democrats may allow the Bush Tax Cuts to expire in order to gain bargaining power for their own ‘middle-income tax relief’ plan in the New Year.
A more desirable scenario would bring Republicans to the negotiating table for a bi-partisan plan to gradually phase in austerity measures instead of going over the cliff – similar to the 2010 Simpson-Bowles plan. This would set the stage for meaningful tax and budget reform over the next few years and reassure deficit-watchers that the U.S. is managing its debt. The crux of the matter is that while the U.S. needs to get its deficit spending under control (lest we end up like Europe), our still-fragile economy cannot withstand large-scale tax increases and government spending cutbacks.
In short, now that election season is over, lawmakers are faced with major challenges, and we fear that they are more interested in partisan bickering than hammering out a compromise. On the bright side, we see the potential for markets to respond positively when an agreement is finally made. If economic reports remain upbeat, we could see further upside in the near future. As always, we encourage you to remain patient and focused on your long-term financial strategy.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: Veterans Day, Stock Markets Open, Bond Markets & Banks Closed
Tuesday: Treasury Budget
Wednesday: Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Empire State Mfg. Survey, Philadelphia Fed Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Friday: Treasury International Capital, Industrial Production
HEADLINES:
China’s economy may be turning the corner. The head of China’s central economic planning agency claimed that China would meet its 7.5% GDP growth target in 2013. Data on Saturday showed that China’s exports jumped significantly, surpassing expectations and lending credence to the claim.
U.S. Q3 growth higher than previously thought. According to analysts, U.S. third-quarter growth estimates may be revised upwards due to economic data that was not originally included. Recent reports of higher wholesale business inventories and an increase in U.S. exports may indicate that the economy is doing better than expected.
Oil rises above $86 per barrel. Higher projected U.S. economic growth led to a spike in oil prices as producers prepare for higher demand for petroleum products. Gasoline futures also rose on fears of distribution problems and tight supplies in Hurricane Sandy-affected areas.
Greece is running out of cash. Greek’s downward spiral continues as its cash reserves are depleted and its coalition government struggles for survival. Although Greece has missed every key austerity milestone, it will likely receive further bailout funds since it is in the interest of other Eurozone nations to keep the country running (for now).
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“If you cannot do great things, do small things in a great way.” — Napoleon Hill
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!
If you would like to opt-out of future emails, please reply to this email with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.
Hurricane Sandy’s impact on our economy
It was a busy week as Hurricane Sandy pounded the East Coast; securities exchanges were forced to close on Monday and Tuesday; and a slew of economic reports were released. Stocks ended the shortened week with a selloff Friday, erasing gains made earlier, and finishing basically flat. For the week, the S&P gained 0.16% and the Dow climbed 0.12%, while the Nasdaq trimmed 0.19%.
Although the economic impact of Hurricane Sandy won’t be known for weeks or months, the true cost of a disaster like this is always the human suffering. It is painful to see beautiful homes and townships devastated by natural forces, and our thoughts go out to all those impacted. If you or someone you love has been affected in any way, and if there is anything we can do, please don’t hesitate to let us know.
On the bright side – without making light of this disaster – it should be noted that major storms rarely have a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Generally, even large disasters like this one aren’t costly enough to damage the enormous economic machine that is the U.S. economy. Insurance companies may be stuck footing a large bill, and the government may have to pay for relief efforts, but economic snags of this type are usually temporary. The major exception to this general rule was Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and caused over $100 billion in estimated damages. One of the major reasons Katrina was so expensive was because of the area’s economic importance as a major shipping port and oil and gas hub. Although the effects of Sandy are widespread, the storm would have had to shut down major cities for weeks to achieve similar effects. Fortunately, it passed somewhat quickly, and major recovery efforts are underway.
One note of positive news could be found in last week’s Labor Department report showing that employers added 171,000 new jobs last month. Although the unemployment rate ticked slightly upwards to 7.9%, the increase was attributed to discouraged workers restarting job searches, which is a positive sign for the economy. This good news combined with recent consumer confidence highs indicate that we may be able to expect consumer spending to increase during the holiday season, which would be excellent for retailers.
As earnings season continued last week, markets responded positively to some solid results. Consumer discretionary stocks edged higher as several well known travel companies and luxury retailers beat estimates. Overall, the corporate earnings picture has improved as more companies have reported; according to November 2nd data, of the 378 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 61.9% have beat expectations, which is in line with the 62% average since 1994. While we may see additional volatility in the weeks ahead, solid earnings and upbeat economic reports mean that investors have a lot to be pleased about right now.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: ISM Non-Mfg. Index
Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday: International Trade, Jobless Claims
Friday: Import and Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment.
HEADLINES:
Euro crisis strikes Greek hospitals. German drug maker Merck KGaA has stopped delivering a critical cancer drug to Greek hospitals due to unpaid bills. Although Greeks can still buy the popular prescription drug in pharmacies, until public hospitals are able to pay down their debts, the drug will not be available to hospital patients.
Consumer confidence rises to four-year high. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index rose in October to the highest level since February 2008. Despite tough economic conditions, Americans were more confident about their finances and expected the job market to improve in the next six months.
Planned layoffs jump to five-month high. The number of planned employee layoffs by U.S. firms jumped 41.1% to the highest level since May. While the last three months of the year historically see the largest number of layoffs, analysts believe that the deteriorating situation in Europe and worries about the fiscal cliff are leading companies to cut back on staffing.
Long-term shifts in retail may hinder employment growth. The retail sector is a key provider of employment. As consumer confidence grows, and mortgage refinances put money back in consumers’ pockets, retailers are beginning to increase hiring. However, structural shifts towards self-checkout and online sales may limit the pace of hiring increases.
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!
If you would like to opt-out of future emails, please reply to this email with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.