Can the market go higher with lower earnings forecasts?
Markets declined for most of the week on disappointing third quarter earnings reports, with the technology sector hardest hit. On Friday, the 25th anniversary of 1987’s stock market crash (known as Black Monday) , trading was mostly downbeat as investors digested a string of disappointing earnings reports. In spite of this, markets staged a brief comeback in the last hours of trading to close mixed. For the week, the S&P gained 0.32%, the Dow gained 0.11%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.26%.
Overall this earnings season, Q3 profits have managed to come in just a shade over the doom and gloom estimates. However, the bad news is that top line revenue is much worse than forecasted. One of the big disappointments this week was Google (GOOG), which missed its revenue forecasts for the first time because of its struggling Motorola division and drove a tech selloff on Friday. Market stalwarts GE (GE) and McDonald’s (MCD) also turned in downbeat reports, pushing shares of both companies lower. With about one-third of S&P 500 companies reporting in, a solid 65% have beaten profit estimates, while just 42% have managed to beat revenue forecasts. This repeats the performance we saw in the second quarter, which shows that companies are learning to do more with less while dealing with challenging business conditions.
Not all the earnings news is grim though; banks and consumer discretionary companies such as luxury stores and hotels are expected to report the best growth. Banks were given a boost by Fed actions, and, despite the tough economy, luxury retailers and hotel chains are doing well as wealthy consumers continue to spend.
Next week, analysts will turn their attention to two big economic reports on Friday – the GDP report and consumer sentiment. With remaining earnings reports likely to show more of the same, investors will be looking at the GDP report to see whether the Fed’s QE3 activities are giving the economy the boost it needs. Although we can hope for some solid economic performance, there is a good chance the rest of October will be turbulent for markets.
HEADLINES:
Unemployment rate falls in 41 states in September. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. saw a sharp drop in the unemployment rate in all but 9 states last month. South Carolina posted the largest improvement, with its unemployment rate falling from 9.6% to 9.1%.
Home resales fall in September. Sales of existing homes retreated from a two-year high last month, reminding us that the housing market is a long way from a full recovery. Resales fell 1.7%, pushed lower by tight inventory and a slowdown in distressed sales.
Mortgage processing delays may undermine QE3. To meet surging demand for mortgages after the Fed’s QE3 housing boost, banks are hiring new mortgage processors. However, they are still struggling to process applications, leading to delays for beleaguered mortgage applicants.
European bank shares fall on new discord. Shares of European banks fell last week as EU nations bickered over how to help debt-ridden Spain and Greece. While some analysts believe this is a blip, others believe that markets could fall further if permanent solutions are not found.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“Be a student by staying open and willing to learn from everyone and anyone”- Dr. Wayne Dyer
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.
Is the glass half full or half empty for US Markets?
Markets declined last week, retreating after initial third quarter earnings reports showed weakness and the World Bank cut its growth estimates in Asia. While the major indexes rallied a bit on Thursday and Friday, overall, investors decided that they didn’t have much to get excited about. For the week, the S&P declined 2.21%, the Dow lost 2.07%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.94%.
While it is can be hard to see the big picture when markets slide, it’s important to keep short-term pull-backs in perspective. To help us do this, we can reflect on how far we’ve come since Tuesday’s five year anniversary of the October 9, 2007 peak. In the last five years, markets have overcome a great deal: a catastrophic mortgage meltdown, a plunge that erased 50% of the market’s value, and significant global uncertainty. Since the darkest days of the “great recession” we’ve made enormous strides towards recovery, and currently, the S&P is within a few percentage points of its 2007 peak. Furthermore, we have reasons to be optimistic about the future. While we could hope for more robust growth, economic indicators are showing that the economy is gradually recovering. Unemployment is decreasing, manufacturing is increasing, and consumers are feeling more confident.
We definitely have a long way to go before we can state with certainty that the global economy has recovered. And, as many analysts have stated, the next few months could be turbulent for equity markets. Factors such as the ongoing crisis in Europe, weak fundamentals in Asia, poor corporate earnings reports, the presidential election, and the fiscal cliff may create challenges that test your discipline to stay the course.
On the bright side though, the S&P 500 has gained 11.8% since June 1, indicating that investors are ready to respond to positive news and that there may still be some upside potential this year. In September, the U.S. economy gained 114,000 jobs, driving the unemployment rate down to 7.8%. The housing market is active, indicating that at least that corner of our economy is doing well. Although we cannot predict the future, these factors are very encouraging. We’ve certainly come a long way.
HEADLINES:
Eurozone seeking ways to cut Greek debt. Eurozone officials are seeking alternative ways to address Greece’s woes as recession and reform delays have put their original debt targets out of reach. After lending over 25 billion euros, central banks are reluctant to offer lower interest rates or purchase additional Greek debt.
China’s weak imports signal recovery is slow. China’s import growth recovered slightly in September but was still well below targets. Imports grew 2.4% in September, and exports, a major component of China’s GDP, grew by a robust 9.9%, despite continued weakness in the U.S. and Europe.
Mortgage lenders report record profits. In the latest sign that the housing market has turned the corner, the country’s largest mortgage lenders, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, reported that a surge in lending has resulted in record profits last quarter. Lower interest rates are promoting refinancing as well as mortgages for new homes.
U.S. producer prices rise in September. U.S. producer prices, a measure of inflation, rose 1.1% in September, following a 1.7% increase in August. The increase is due to rising energy costs. Though wholesales prices rose, core inflation remained steady, reducing concern about rising prices.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
"I am certain that after the dust of centuries has passed over our cities, we, too, will be remembered not for victories or defeats in battle or in politics, but for our contribution to the human spirit.”- John F. Kennedy
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.
Market review of the 3rd quarter, and a look ahead to the last qtr of 2012
Wall Street closed its best third quarter since 2010 after a wave of central bank actions across the globe (and expectations of future action) drove up equities in an unexpected summer rally. However, signs of weakness in the economy pushed markets down in the final week of September and may lead to further bearish sentiment. For the quarter, the S&P rose 5.76%, the Dow increased 4.32% and the Nasdaq rose 6.17%. Lets take a quick look back.
July: July was a volatile month for stocks. Markets were kicked around by domestic indicators and news surrounding the debt crisis in Europe. During the final weeks of July we saw the release of corporate earnings reports for many major companies. Across the board, most companies showed weak revenue, with less than half exceeding revenue expectations. Even so, a number of companies were still able to beat earnings expectations, meaning they are getting better at doing more with less.
August: August was the month of the summer sugar high rally as investors drove up stock prices on hopes that the Fed would undertake further quantitative easing. Retail sales in August beat expectations due to a strong back-to-school season, which could forecast robust holiday sales. These two shopping seasons are the most important for retailers, so a strong performance could lead to upbeat corporate earnings reports next quarter.
September: Several market-moving events took place last month; markets were dominated by expectations of major Federal Reserve stimulus action and hope that the European Central Bank would unveil a new plan. Despite the Fed’s historical reluctance to become involved in the election cycle, under the pressure of a disappointing August jobs report, the Fed finally launched the long-awaited additional quantitative easing. Under QE3, the Fed has made an open-ended commitment to buy mortgage-backed securities to the tune of $40 billion per month. The move is designed to lower long-term interest rates and spur more lending to businesses and consumers. In a similar move, the ECB launched a bold bond-buying program designed to reassure European investors and lower interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds.
What’s Next: The first week of October will provide plenty of market-moving data, with the release of third-quarter reports on GDP, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and more. We will also see the FOMC minutes from last week’s Fed meeting, which will provide more clarity into possible Fed moves this year. Earnings reports for Q3 will start trickling in during coming weeks, and although predictions indicate revenues and profits may be down across the board, we could get some surprises.
As we look ahead to the final quarter of the year, markets could decline from their summer peak or rise to new highs. The market rallies of the summer indicate that investors are poised to respond to positive news, and should the economy show further signs of recovery, we may see more bullish market behavior. With the election cycle nearing its conclusion, markets may also react to political uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff and other economic issues.
As an investor, it is wise to assess your own risk tolerance from time to time and make sure you are allocated suitably for your personal investment objectives.
HEADLINES:
Protests in Spain and Portugal threaten austerity measures. Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in Madrid and Lisbon, protesting the deep tax increases, spending cuts, and high unemployment. Despite mounting tensions, politicians promise to hold the line.
Durable goods orders fell in August, but business investment remains up. A significant drop in orders for commercial aircraft drove down overall durable goods orders; however, the Commerce Department reports that core capital goods orders – an indicator of business confidence – rose 1.1% after two months of declines.
Consumer spending rose in August even though income barely increased. Consumers were forced to spend more at the pump as gas prices rose. This is concerning to analysts as it may rein in discretionary spending at the end of the year, affecting holiday retail sales.
Housing contracts fell in August. The number of signed contracts to purchase previously occupied houses fell 2.6% in August after hitting a two-year high in July. Unemployment, lack of income growth, and a strict credit market may make it tough for housing to regain its peak this year.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
"Happiness lies in the joy of achievement and the thrill of creative effort." – Franklin D. Roosevelt
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!
If you would like to opt-out of future emails, please reply to this email with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.
The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.