Is the glass half full or half empty for US Markets?
Have you ever been through a period of recovery in your life? Perhaps you received an injury of some sort and needed time to heal. While recovering, we don’t usually function at our peak level do we? We might experience a measure of discomfort or decreased mobility for a time. We may have good days and bad days. This aptly illustrates what our economy is going through.
From late 2007 to mid 2009, we sustained a serious injury. Since that time official data shows that we are recovering, but it doesn’t always feel like we are. Disruptions from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami have had a direct impact on manufacturing and the auto industry in particular. The spike in oil and gasoline prices has affected consumer and business spending. More recently, European sovereign debt woes and a batch of soft economic reports have created tension for stock markets. What does this all mean? It means we are not functioning at our peak level because we’re going through a period of healing. Until we are fully recovered, we are going to experience ups and downs.
We’ve come very far, very fast – especially in the stock market. With the Dow up some 22% in the last 12 months , we must reasonably acknowledge that such rapid growth is not sustainable. We may have to go lower before we go higher. Since the markets began to rise in March 2009, we have seen a number of 5-7 % pullbacks and we may see more of them in the future.
To use another analogy, if you’re on a bumpy plane ride, you don’t strap on a parachute and jump out the door at the first sign of turbulence; you simply buckle your seatbelt and try to relax. That is precisely what we are encouraging you to do. Now is not the time to give up on our expectations for a full recovery.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: US Holiday – Memorial Day
Tuesday: Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Wednesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, ADP Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Thursday: Monster Employment Index, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, Factory Orders
Friday: Employment Situation, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
HEADLINES:
Gas prices have come down in May after reaching nearly $4 last month, giving a lift to how people feel about the economy and raising hopes that they might be willing to spend more. Benchmark oil for July delivery was down 70 cents to $99.89 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
The European Union is working on a second bailout package for Greece in a race to release vital loans next month and avert the risk of the euro zone country defaulting, EU officials said on Monday.
China will raise retail electricity prices starting next month, the first increase in more than a year, to curb demand and boost power generation as the nation battles with a supply shortfall that may be the worst in history.
A woman's attempt to sell a purported $1.7 million moon rock was thwarted last week when the buyer she met with turned out to be an undercover agent working for NASA. The sting, which according to the Riverside County (Calif.) Sheriff's Dept. came after several months of investigation, took place at a Denny's restaurant in Lake Elsinore, Calif., about 70 miles southeast of Los Angeles. The woman, who authorities did not identify, was detained but not arrested pending the "moon rock" being verified as
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