How much longer can the Stock
Market rally last?
Markets continued the rally
through the holiday-shortened week, giving the S&P 500 and Dow their eighth
straight week of gains. Markets are up for the third month in a row, leading to
hopes for a great close to the year. For the week, the S&P 500 gained
0.06%, the Dow grew 0.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.71%.[i]
Expectations
about holiday retail numbers may have driven some of the action. Though we
don’t have solid numbers for Black Friday yet, the National Retail Federation
estimates that approximately 140 million shoppers hit U.S.
This
week will be packed with data as investors hunt for fresh clues about whether
the Fed may taper after its mid-December meeting and whether markets can
support the rally. At the forefront of everyone’s mind will be another estimate
of third-quarter GDP and the November jobs report. The employment situation is
a major factor in Fed deliberations and traders will attempt to channel the Fed
when interpreting the data. Volatility can be expected and disappointing data
could very well lead to a pullback as investors take profits and wait for
better news.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Mfg Index,
Construction Spending
Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, International
Trade, New Home Sales, New Home Sales, ISM Non-Mfg. Index, EIA Petroleum Status
Report, Beige Book
Thursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Friday: Employment Situation, Personal Income
and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
HEADLINES:
Gold suffers worst month since 1978. Gold prices took their worst monthly
tumble since November 1978 as the stock market rally put pressure on the
precious metal.[iv]
Greek debt upgraded. Moody’s, the international ratings
agency, upgraded Greek debt to reflect the country’s progress on fiscal reform.
Though the upgrade – from Caa3 to C – still leaves Greek bonds in junk
territory, it may bolster confidence that Greece
Chinese factory growth at 18-month
high. China
“My great concern is not
whether you have failed, but whether you are content with your failure.” ~ Abraham
Lincoln
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