Despite international uncertainty, US data improving by Ken Mahoney
Despite a plague of turbulent international events, the bulls managed to triumph over uncertainty last week. U.S. stocks climbed for a third straight day Friday, erasing the past week’s losses from Japan’s nuclear crisis. In fact, all three measures ended two-week losing streaks as the S&P 500 added 2.7%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.8%, and the Dow rose 3.1% to its best week since July 9, 2010.
While several reasons could be cited for last week’s performance, the primary piece of good news was that fourth quarter GDP outperformed previous estimates as businesses maintained spending and demand. U.S. GDP increased at a 3.1% annualized rate, revised up from the 2.8% reported one month ago, and pleasantly surprised analysts.
Investor’s hopes have also boosted in anticipation of next Friday’s jobs report from the Labor Department. Payrolls increased by 195,000 workers this month, the most since May 2010 according to a preliminary survey by Bloomberg News. Manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in seven years, while record exports and consumer spending are prompting many companies to boost hiring. In light of these positive reports, Libya, the series of events in Japan and new changes in the Eurozone – circumstances which previously shook investor’s confidence – appear to have left markets unfazed last week.
As we have seen in times past, it is impossible to pinpoint exactly when markets will persevere or turn bearish. Last week’s reversal thus illustrates that the markets do not always behave rationally.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR: Monday – Personal Income & Outlays, Pending Home Sales Index Tuesday – S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence Wednesday – ADP Employment Report, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday – Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, Factory Orders
Friday – Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. NA means not available.
HEADLINES:
The U.S. Postal Service announced plans to shutter seven district offices (located in Columbus, South East Michigan, Northern Illinois, South East New England, South Georgia, Big Sky and Albuquerque) eliminating 7,500 jobs. When fully implemented, the Postal Service estimates the cuts will lead to about $750 million in annual savings. The agency also plans to close as many as 2,000 post offices over the next year and hopes to end Saturday delivery service.
On the heels of Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates’ resignation over austerity measures, an EU Summit was held last week to negotiate the details of the European Stability Mechanism. In 2013, the ESM will have a lending capacity of 500 billion euros. Standard & Poor's downgraded Portugal's long-term credit, bringing the country's credit standing closer to junk status. A bailout may wait till June as the country needs to first figure out its political situation.
Japanese engineers struggled to pump radioactive water from a crippled nuclear power station after radiation levels soared in seawater near the plant. Prolonged efforts to prevent a meltdown at the 40-year-old plant have also intensified concern around the world about nuclear power. The crisis at the plant, 150 miles north of Tokyo, has overshadowed a big relief and recovery effort from the magnitude 9.0 quake and the huge tsunami it triggered on March 11 that left more than 27,100 people dead or missing in northeast Japan.
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