Markets climb to 2 ½ year highs, what’s next? Ken Mahoney
Wall Street started last week holding its breath while waiting to see whether Hosni Mubarak would step down as Egypt’s president. Bowing to pro-democracy protests, Mubarak resigned on Friday, ending 30 years of authoritarian rule in the Middle East’s most populous country.
As fireworks burst over Cairo’s Tahrir Square, there was a collective sigh of relief on Wall Street, while the benchmark averages rose to finish Friday’s session with weekly gains. U.S. stocks climbed to fresh 2 1/2-year closing highs after the resignation of Mubarak removed a layer of uncertainty from global markets. The Dow had a weekly advance of 1.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq added 1.5%.
Analysts and investors agree that Mubarak’s resignation dramatically reduces geopolitical risk and uncertainty from the region.
Reflecting this, oil prices fell following the news in Egypt, with crude dropping to $85.16 a barrel in midday trading Friday. Other dollar-denominated commodities, including gold and silver, also drifted lower following Mubarak's resignation. Gold prices slid $5.30, settling at $1,357.20 an ounce.
On another topic, how does starting a new week on St. Valentine’s Day traditionally affect the markets? Interestingly, the “day of love” hasn’t customarily shown much “love” to investors; at least when using the S&P 500 index as a gauge. According to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Indices, going back to 1928, February 14 trading days only notched gains on the S&P 38.7% of the time against a historical daily rate of 52.03%. Here’s an interesting caveat though – in looking at the 11 Valentine’s Days that occurred on the first trading day of the week, the S&P 500 logged a gain 63.4% of the time. While we’re certainly not trying to make a prediction, it is interesting to see what history can teach us about market behaviors.
From war and peace one week, to love and chocolates the next, it just goes to show that almost any world event has potential to affect people’s investments. Like everything in life, weathering all the little ups and downs requires intelligence, patience, and a cool head.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Tuesday – Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg. Survey, Import and Export Prices, Redbook, Treasury International Capital, Business Inventories, Housing Market Index Wednesday – Housing Starts, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Minutes
Thursday – Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed Survey
Data as of 02/11/2011 1-Week YTD 1-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 1.39 5.69 23.2 0.98 0.11
Dow 1.50 6.01 20.9 2.48 1.38
NASDAQ 1.45 5.90 29.0 4.84 1.37
MSCI EAFE 0.07 4.48 17.6 1.71 N/A
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 3.65 N/A 3.73 4.58 5.02
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. NA means not available.
HEADLINES:
Pandora Media Inc., filed papers Friday to raise as much as $100 million in an initial public offering of stock. Pandora offers an Internet service that creates playlists of songs based on user feedback. The Oakland, Calif.-based company said it now has more than 80 million registered users, and “a more than 50% share of all Internet radio listening time among the top 20 stations and networks in the United States.”
The euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar as speculation increased that Portugal will follow Ireland in tapping the European Financial Stability Facility. Yields on 10-year Portuguese debt climbed on Feb. 10 to 7.64 percent, the highest level since the introduction of the euro in 1999.
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in eight months in early February, boosted by recent tax cuts and optimism about the economy. The preliminary February reading for the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 75.1, up from 74.2 in January, the highest level since June 2010.
The Commerce Department says the deficit in December increased 5.9% to $40.6 billion. It grew because the 2.6% gain in imports outpaced the 1.8% rise in exports. For 2010, the U.S. trade deficit rose to $497.8 billion, a 32.8% surge and the biggest annual percentage gain since 2000.
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The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
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The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
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