Growth is likely to resume in 2011 according to Fed Chair Bernanke By Ken Mahoney

What is traditionally Wall Street’s quietest month has been about as peaceful as a crowded five-o-clock flight to Las Vegas that’s serving up all-you-can-drink Red Bull.

After closing below 10,000 on Thursday, the Dow dropped as low as 9,936 in early Friday trading before finally rallying 165 points (1.7%) to recapture the psychologically important 10,000 level and finally close at 10,150. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq likewise rose 1.7% for the day.

In spite of Friday’s performance, each of the major indexes finished to the downside for the week – proof that the ongoing tug-of-war between strong corporate balance sheets and troubling economic indicators is still exerting an influence on the markets.

Although the media has a tendency to confuse the two, it is important to remember that the stock market and the economy are separate animals. Just because the economy is performing poorly doesn’t mean the stock market will, and vice versa. That being said, what we are currently seeing is a strong tendency among investors and analysts alike to make investment decisions based largely upon how the economic indicators are reading. In part, this is due to the fact that many people are still licking their wounds from the so called Great Recession of 2007-2009. Investors are nervous, skittish, uncertain, and in some cases even paranoid. What all this negativity creates is a reactionary market environment – one that moves in response to every new shred of economic news.

Case in point: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech on the economic outlook held Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Mr. Bernanke’s remarks – the strongest yet that the Fed is ready to do what is necessary to bolster growth – sent stocks instantly higher. Although Bernanke acknowledged that the recovery is “less vigorous than we expected”, he also reiterated that growth is likely to pick up in 2011.

After outlining four potential options the Fed could deploy to boost the economy, he added, “The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation. We do. The issue is instead whether, at any given juncture, the benefits of each tool, in terms of additional stimulus, outweigh the associated costs or risks of using each tool.”
The Fed's strategy carries no guarantees. Even keeping short-term interest rates near zero has done little to rejuvenate the economy. The benefits of recent stimulus programs are evaporating, and Congress has failed to agree on any new major economic aid. Put simply, there are no easy options for fixing the economy. In his closing remarks Bernanke stated, "We have come a long way, but there is still some way to travel.” Yes Mr. Bernanke, you are right about that.

HEADLINES:

The U.S. economy sputtered in the second quarter, according to new estimates from the government released Friday, although the slowdown wasn't as bad as many had feared. The nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, was revised sharply lower to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the three months ending in June. The initial reading had been for a 2.4% growth rate in the period.

Japan Prime Minister Naoto Kan says he is ready to take “bold” action as the yen approaches its all-time high against the dollar. Many traders say new records are inevitable even after this year’s 9.2% gain.
The number of babies born in the United States dropped 2.6% last year, according to a recent study. The news is not surprising, said Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University, given the state of the American economy right now.

The Obama administration plans to take two new steps in the next few weeks to help troubled homeowners. The administration will begin a Federal Housing Authority refinancing effort to help borrowers who are struggling to pay their home mortgages, and will start an emergency homeowners’ loan program for unemployed borrowers so they can stay in their homes, said Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Toyota will recall 1.13 million Corolla and Matrix cars for a flaw that U.S. regulators said may cause stalling "at any speed without warning." The recall affects vehicles from the 2005-2008 model years in the United States and Canada and follows at least three reported accidents linked to the defect.