Lessons from the market low of one year ago this week.
by Ken Mahoney
Has it really been a whole year? It sure has! This Tuesday marks the 1-year anniversary of the March 9th low that saw markets reeling from the worst bear market in 8 decades. Through March 4th, the S&P has crawled back a whopping 66% since that dark day. The question on everyone's mind now is: Will this bull have a second year to run?
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but there are important lessons to be learned by analyzing how the markets have behaved during past recoveries. According to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research, stocks historically tend to keep rising during the second year, though not as powerfully. He said: "First-year bulls tend to recover an average of 84% of what they lost in the entire bear market." Then, noting that this bull run has retraced about half of the loss, he added: "So you could say that on a recovery basis, we have more room to go."
Adding to the case for an extended recovery, it's interesting to note that no bull market since 1949 has ended inside of 2 years. The shortest one, in fact, was 26 months long, beginning in 1966. According to S&P, the average length of a bull market since 1932 has been 50 months. In all fairness, we should mention that four of the five bulls between 1932 and 1947 lasted less than 2 years. Let's hope the bull we're riding now keeps its legs!
Regarding last week, Friday's widely anticipated jobs report ignited the best 1-day gain in stocks in more than 2 weeks, as investors bet more heavily on the economic recovery. The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls fell only 36,000 in February; far below the drop of 90,000 forecasted by economists polled by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate also held steady at 9.7%, better than the 9.8% economists expected. The Dow closed 1.2% higher at 10,566.20, and the S&P gained 1.4%, getting an added boost from consumer credit numbers showing that consumers increased their debt in January for the first time in a year. For the week, the Dow added 2.3%, the S&P 500 gained 3.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.9%. It was the second straight week of gains for the indexes.
Key things we’ll be watching this week:
Wednesday – Wholesale Inventories
Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims
Friday – Retail Sales
HIGHLIGHTS:
The dollar fell against the euro on Friday after Greece's parliament approved a package of budget cuts and Greece's prime minister said it wouldn't need aid from its European neighbors.
More consumers are choosing to pay credit cards rather than their mortgage. The number of consumers delinquent on their mortgages but current on their credit cards rose to 6.6% in the third quarter of 2009 from 4.3% in the first quarter of 2008, according to a TransUnion study of 27 million anonymous consumer records pulled randomly from its database. Meanwhile, the portion of those who fell behind on credit-card payments but paid their mortgage dropped to 3.6% from 4.1%.
Apple on Friday said the first version of its iPad tablet computer will go on sale Saturday, April 3 in the U.S., with other versions becoming available globally later in the month. The initial U.S. version of the iPad, costing $499, has Wi-Fi built in, but it cannot connect to the Internet over 3G wireless-phone networks. Other iPad versions, including global models, will have both Wi-Fi and 3G access. They go on sale "in late April," Apple said.
General Motors Co. will reinstate about 600 dealerships that it had originally planned to drop from its network, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday in its online edition. GM had initially planned to eliminate 2,400 dealerships as part of its reorganization but about 1,160 of the dealers had appealed through an arbitration process, the Journal said.
Crude-oil futures closed above $81 a barrel Friday and added more than 2% for the week, buoyed by U.S. jobs data and positive comments from Chinese officials about economic growth.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
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