Will
Janet Yellen keep a safety net under stocks?
The stock market
ended an upbeat week on a positive note, buoyed by reassuring remarks by new
Fed chairman Janet Yellen. Though the week saw reduced volume as some investors
sat on the sidelines, stocks rallied impressively, giving us hope that markets
have shaken off the January blahs. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow both
gained 2.3%, and the Nasdaq grew 2.9%.[1]
Investors were relieved this week to have dodged another
round of brinksmanship about the federal debt ceiling. The Senate voted
Wednesday to pass the House’s measure to allow the federal government to borrow
enough money to pay its bills through March 2015. By raising the debt ceiling,
lawmakers allowed the Treasury to return to normal operations and averted a
default on U.S. debt.[2]
Janet
Yellen and the Federal Reserve
You've probably been hearing the name Janet Yellen a lot
lately, and we wanted to use this week’s commentary to talk about the new chair
of the Federal Reserve and discuss the role she plays in global financial
markets. While we’ve tried to keep this explanation brief, we hope you’ll find
it useful in understanding the major functions of the Fed and why they mean something
to you as an investor.
Janet Yellen replaced Ben Bernanke as Chair of the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 3, 2014 and will serve
for a four-year term. In plain terms, Yellen will determine the direction of
arguably the most powerful central bank in the world and has the authority to
make changes to monetary policy that will ripple across the global financial
system.
The Federal Reserve System (known informally as the
Federal Reserve or the Fed) is principally made up of 12 regional Federal
Reserve Banks, a presidentially appointed Board of Governors, and the Federal
Open Market Committee. While the Fed is responsible for duties like regulating
the Federal Reserve Banks, administering credit protection laws, and monitoring
the nation’s payments system, its most important role in markets is to analyze
global financial and economic developments and determine U.S. monetary policy.[3]
Let’s back up for a moment and go back to Economics 101.
In the U.S., fiscal policy is made by the federal government and is determined
by each year’s federal budget, which is proposed by the president and passed by
Congress. Monetary policy is developed by the Federal Reserve and is used to
achieve macroeconomic policy objectives like inflation control (through price
stability), full employment, and stable economic growth. While the Federal
Reserve System is considered an independent central bank and makes decisions
independently of Congress or the White House, the Fed is subject to
congressional oversight, and Congress has given the Fed the “dual mandate” of
achieving maximum employment and maintaining stable prices.[4]
The principal tool of the Fed’s monetary policy is the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) a group within the Fed tasked with
overseeing open market operations (i.e., the Fed’s buying and selling of U.S.
Treasuries and other securities in financial markets). As chairman of the Fed,
Yellen now heads up the FOMC and wields considerable authority over its
decision-making process. This committee meets throughout the year and decides
how to achieve short-term objectives like interest rate targets through their
bond-buying operations. Part of Yellen’s job is to ensure that FOMC operations
support long-term Fed objectives like economic growth, stable inflation, and
high levels of employment. [5]
If you’ve been reading our weekly updates, you know that
the FOMC undertook a program of bond-buying known as quantitative easing that
was designed to lower interest rates (making it cheaper to take on loans), and
boost economic activity. Now that the economy is on more solid footing, the
FOMC has been tapering its historically high pace of bond purchases and slowly
returning to normal operations.
By law, the chairman of the Board of Governors must
report to Congress twice annually on the Fed’s activities and monetary policy.
As the new chair, Yellen testified last week before the House Committee on
Banking and Financial Services and the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing,
and Urban Affairs to outline her vision for the Fed and answer questions about
Fed activities.
Yellen’s testimony before the House and Senate didn’t yield
any shockers, and she stated that markets should expect the Fed to follow the
low-interest-rate path laid out by her predecessor Ben Bernanke. Since Yellen
served on the FOMC under Bernanke, this isn’t unexpected. She also emphasized
that the Fed would continue to taper asset purchases so long as the economy
continued to improve and that future decisions would be very data dependent.[6]
In the spirit of the Olympics, one commentator gave her
Congressional testimony a “7 out of 10” because of a stumble in responding to
an important legal question. Frankly, we’re inclined to be more generous with
our appraisal since markets reacted well to her remarks and investors seem
reassured by her promise to give markets more of the same. We know that the Fed
is carefully monitoring employment reports, and we’re happy to hear that they
intend to keep rates low even if the target 6.5% unemployment rate is reached.
Economists widely expect the Fed to continue the taper at the next FOMC meeting
in mid-March, and the economic outlook would probably have to take a serious
wrong turn before the Fed considered a pause.[7]
In short, while we can’t predict how markets will react to future Fed moves, we
can hope that investors will see the Fed’s support as an optimistic sign.
We hope you’ve found this foray into the details behind
the Fed informative and useful. We hope to occasionally use this space to dig
deeper into some of the important events and players behind market headlines.
ECONOMIC
CALENDAR:
Monday:
U.S.
markets closed for Presidents’ Day Holiday
Tuesday: Empire State Mfg. Survey,
Treasury International Capital, Housing Market Index
Wednesday: Housing Starts, Producer
Price Index, FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Jobless
Claims, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, Philadelphia Fed Survey, EIA Petroleum
Status Report
Friday: Existing Home Sales
HEADLINES:
U.S. consumer confidence stalls in February. Consumer sentiment was unchanged from
January’s lowered reading as Americans tempered their optimism about the
future. Economists have predicted that unusually cold weather across much of
the U.S. has put a damper on consumer sentiments, leading to lower consumer
confidence about their financial prospects.[8]
Cold weather freezes industrial output. U.S. manufacturing output fell
unexpectedly in January and recorded the biggest drop since 2009 as cold
weather disrupted production. Fortunately, these seasonal factors should drop
off as the weather warms up.[9]
Chinese lending soars in January. Despite dire predictions of a
slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, Chinese banks disbursed more
loans last month than in the past four Januarys, crushing expectations and
tripling December’s numbers. Economists caution that seasonal factors after the
Chinese New Year could have distorted monthly numbers.[10]
Economists trim Q1 growth forecasts. Economists cut back their optimistic
growth estimates for the first quarter of 2014 as cold weather and slow hiring
affected the economy. On the other hand, economists expect Q2 growth to
accelerate to 3.0%, pushing up annual growth to 2.8%.[11]
“If you want to be successful, find
someone who has achieved results you want and copy what they do and you’ll
achieve the same results.”
– Anthony Robbins
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